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Stress Index
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Analyzing market conditions...

Data Source --
Last Updated --
Transmission Multiplier --

7-Pillar Stress Assessment

Real-time

Stress Radar

Stress Index History

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54-Year Historical Backtest

1971-2025
2,814
Weekly Observations
81.5%
True Positive Rate
22/27
Crises Detected
42
Avg Days Warning

Historical Stress Index with Crisis Events

Comfortable (<0.42) Cautious (0.42-0.49) Stretched (0.49-0.58) Critical (>0.58) ● Crisis Event
Extreme High Moderate

Crisis Detection Analysis

Forward Guidance Index Tracker

G20 Countries
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Countries Tracked
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Most Resilient
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Highest Risk
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Average Score

Country Risk Heatmap

Strong (≥0.7) Moderate (0.5-0.7) Weak (0.3-0.5) Critical (<0.3)
# Country Composite Political Economic Social Environment

Validation & Backtesting

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R² Score (Expert vs WGI)
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Crisis Detection Rate
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Historical Coverage

Governance Effectiveness: Expert vs WGI

Multicountry Crisis Detection

Cardinals Validation

Paired Comparison Proof

Same shock type, different Cardinals environment — different market outcome. The multiplier ratio is the quantitative proof.

Transmission Multiplier Summary

Pair Scenario A Scenario B MAC (A) MAC (B) Mult (A) Mult (B) Ratio

Select a pair above

Key Indicators

IndicatorAB

Conflict Transmission Scenarios

Cardinals Engine

Methodology

Stress Index Calculation

The MAC Score is derived from a proprietary aggregation of the seven pillar scores, calibrated against 54 years of historical market data. The Stress Index represents the inverse of market absorption capacity.

7-Pillar Framework

  • Liquidity: SOFR-IORB spread, CP-Treasury spread
  • Valuation: Term premium, IG/HY credit spreads
  • Positioning: CFTC futures positioning data
  • Volatility: VIX level and term structure
  • Policy: Fed funds room, balance sheet, PCE
  • Contagion: Cross-currency basis, credit ratios
  • Private Credit: Leveraged loan conditions

Stress Thresholds

Empirically calibrated from 54 years of data (1971-2025)

COMFORTABLE: <0.42 — Normal conditions (~45% of history)
CAUTIOUS: 0.42-0.49 — Elevated vigilance (~30%)
STRETCHED: 0.49-0.58 — Reduced capacity (~18%)
CRITICAL: >0.58 — High vulnerability (~7%)

Data Sources & Updates

Updated weekly on Saturdays. Historical backtest uses validated proxy indicators for pre-1986 data gaps (realized volatility, Moody's spreads).

  • FRED — Federal Reserve Economic Data (SOFR, IORB, credit spreads, VIX, Treasury yields, GDP, PCE). fred.stlouisfed.org
  • CFTC — Commitments of Traders positioning reports (13 futures contracts). publicreporting.cftc.gov
  • Cboe — Volatility indices (VIX9D, VIX3M, VVIX). cboe.com
  • OFR — Hedge Fund Monitor leverage ratios (SEC Form PF). financialresearch.gov
  • BIS — OTC derivatives notional outstanding. Licensed under CC-BY 3.0. data.bis.org
  • Yahoo Finance — Crypto prices, BTC-SPY correlation, interval fund NAVs. finance.yahoo.com
  • Binance — Crypto futures open interest. binance.com. Fallback: CoinGecko
  • FGI Tracker — World Bank, IMF, UNDP, V-Dem, UCDP, OECD, EM-DAT, Fund for Peace (FSI)

Comparison Overlays

GPR
Caldara-Iacoviello Geopolitical Risk Index

Newspaper-based measure of geopolitical threats and events. Published in American Economic Review (2022). Measures the cause (geopolitical shocks) while MAC measures the effect (market vulnerability).

Source: matteoiacoviello.com | Coverage: 1900-present | Index: 1900-2019=100
FGI
FGF Forward Guidance Index (FGI) Tracker

FGI-based measure of country-level risk across 4 pillars: Political (governance, conflict), Economic (macro stability, sanctions), Social (HDI, inequality, unrest), and Environmental (climate risk, disasters). 29 variables from World Bank, IMF, UNDP, V-Dem, and more.

G20 + Emerging Markets | Annual | 29 variables across 4 pillars

Data Source Quality Monitor

Admin

Geopolitical Leverage Index

Multi-Actor Model

Actor Interaction Matrix

MAC Pre-Depletion

FGF Trilogy

FGI × MAC × PRI × GLI

Trilogy History — USD